My Picks

In an effort to be more transparent and have a little fun with this website, I decided to write a few words about each of my picks for the week. This is merely me trying to justify my bad decisions, not an advice column. I chose to continue Ron's team, Silver Bullet. I need a new approach this season. Hanging around the top 40 and even sneaking in for a few weeks is not good enough. I should be able to pick 60%, it does not seem that difficult. My last finish in the top 40 was 28th in 2016 picking at 58.57%.

 

Week 3:  0-0    Season: 5-3

Pick 1 - Kansas City -6.5 at Indianapolis

Thoughts - I stayed away last week but I am going against the professional bettors and taking the Chiefs. I have heard all week about how KC cannot stop the run and that is what Indy does best. If the spread was 7, I would shy away.

Pick 2 - Washington +6.5 vs Philadelphia

Thoughts - A divisional home dog of almost a touchdown. The Eagles coming in on a short week. Wentz had 2 strong weeks including burning me in week 1, so he is due for a letdown game, but not this week. This game is always tight, I have been watching it twice a year my entire life.

Pick 3 - Atlanta +2 at Seattle

Thoughts - Atlanta is pretty darn close to being 2-0. Mariota is decent, much better than Geno. The Falcons stayed on the west coast after losing to the Rams last week.

Pick 4 - Tampa Bay -1 vs Green Bay

Thoughts - Are we in for a running game battle in what is probably the last game between Brady and Rodgers? Rodgers is 1-3 vs Brady head-to-head. Give me the better defense, quarterback, and coach.

Survivor - Cincinnati

Thoughts - There is no way the Bengals go 0-3. Especially against a team that just had an emotional win like that against the Browns. I went against the Jets in week 1 as well so I hope I am not being too predictable.

 

Week 2:  2-2    Season: 5-3

Pick 1 - Baltimore -3.5 vs Miami

Thoughts - I know the Dolphins put a clinic on the Ravens last season. Lamar is different this season and hungrier. Home defense will step it up and make people start questioning Tua as a starter again.

Results - (38-42) I guess I was wrong about Tua, but I was right about the game overall damnit. Ravens were up 21 in the 4th quarter. The Dolphins have never scored 28 points in the 4th quarter in the history of their franchise! WTF am I doing already betting the Ravens and Eagles in week 2.

Pick 2 - New England -1.5 vs Pittsburgh

Thoughts - I am not sure I like this pick very much, but Belichick with the Patriots is 12-4 against the Steelers and Tomlin is 3-8 versus the Pats.

Results - (17-14) Ugly and low scoring as expected. I figured Belichick would make Mitch look bad. I wonder how much longer the Steelers stick with him before going to the rookie.

Pick 3 - Seattle +9.5 at San Francisco

Thoughts - This is not overreacting to their week 1 win over the Broncos. This is about Trey Lance being an almost double-digit favorite over anyone in this league.

Results - (27-7) Goal-line halfback option pass from the 1? You suck Pete Carroll. Oh and only in California can a football team get better when their starting quarterback goes down for the season.

Pick 4 - Philadelphia -2 vs Minnesota

Thoughts - It is never good when I start picking the Eagles, but it is Cousins on Monday night. He is horrible in this spot (2-9). He is 2-0 in the past two seasons on Monday night, but they were both versus the Bears.

Results - (24-7) I was betting against Cousins and the Vikings, but I should have been betting on my Eagles! The 1st half was so much fun to watch, but I had a bad feeling coming out of halftime. Scoring 0 points in the 2nd half is a little concerning, but the game flow was weird, and the defense was solid. Fly Eagles Fly!

Survivor - LA Rams

Thoughts - This week cannot be as hard as week 1 against the Bills. I am not thrilled by this pick, but can the Rams really fall to 0-2 at home to the Falcons? I would love to take Cincinnati here, but for some reason backup QBs always make it interesting.

Results - (31-27) The Rams did their best to blow it at the end. The survivor pool makes some bad games worth watching. Glad I stayed away from the Bengals, perhaps I can use them this week?!

 

Week 1:  3-1    Season: 3-1

Pick 1 - Tampa Bay -2.5 at Dallas

Thoughts - Tom Brady is undefeated against the Cowboys. I hate the Cowboys. They have one good player from PSU on defense. Dallas is overrated as always.

Results - (19-3)  How about them Cowboys! The only team that did not find the end zone in week 1. Their odds of winning the NFC East are now lower than the Giants and Commandos.

Pick 2 -
Kansas City -6 at Arizona

Thoughts - I think Mahomes and KC are on a mission this season. Not denying the talent, but not a big Kyler fan. No DeAndre Hopkins and potentially no Zach Ertz.

Results - (44-21)  I did not see much of this game, but it went as I expected it to. This may be the Chiefs of a few seasons ago where you just plug them in every week.

Pick 3 -
Houston +7 vs Indianapolis

Thoughts - The Colts have lost 8 straight week 1 games. This is a divisional matchup in Houston. Davis Mills is not that bad. Frank Reich only got the job because the Eagles won the Super Bowl.

Results - (20-20)  Where do I start with this one? I am proud of myself for this pick. I wish I would have had the same confidence in some other large underdogs this week.

Pick 4 -
Jacksonville +2.5 at Washington

Thoughts - As an Eagle fan I just love picking against Wentz, but it is a no brainer when the Jags coach is Doug Pederson. Wentz has had a bad camp and Chase Young is out.

Results - (22-28)  Lawrence missed Etienne for an easy TD, a failed 4th down conversion in Washington territory, and a missed 37-yard field goal. Not much of a consolation, but I feel I was on the right side.

Survivor Baltimore

Thoughts - Lamar with a chip on his shoulder. The Jets are a joke every year. Tennessee, Indy, and San Francisco scare me. I have learned my lesson with picking NFC South divisional games and the Saints week 1 in general.

Results - (24-9)  I am glad I went with my gut here. That was some entertaining week 1 games, but brutal on the survivor pool.